Austria Vienna (Am) vs A. Salzburg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-15 · 18:30 CET
LWWLW
WWLWLThe score model made an A. Salzburg win the most likely outcome at 44%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 3:1 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Austria Vienna (Am) 1.04 – 1.38 A. Salzburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 28.2% | 32.7% | -4.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.7% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| A. Salzburg win | 44.4% | 39.6% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.7% | 51.3% | -7.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.6% | 30.7% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 56.3% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.5% | 34.9% | +1.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Austria Vienna (Am) 22.9 / A. Salzburg 20.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.