Hertha Wels vs SK Rapid II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-14 · 18:30 CET
LWLDL
WLWLLThe score model made a Hertha Wels win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hertha Wels 1.79 – 1.27 SK Rapid II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hertha Wels win | 49.4% | 40.1% | +9.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 25.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| SK Rapid II win | 27.1% | 34.9% | -7.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.0% | 62.3% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.6% | 41.7% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 64.4% | -4.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.4% | 42.8% | -3.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hertha Wels 20.7 / SK Rapid II 32.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.