Bregenz vs Kapfenberg
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
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LLLLWThe score model made a Bregenz win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 72%). It finished 3:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bregenz 1.89 – 1.85 Kapfenberg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bregenz win | 39.9% | 44.9% | -5.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 21.7% | 25.0% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Kapfenberg win | 38.4% | 30.1% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 72.1% | 61.7% | +10.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 51.4% | 41.1% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 71.7% | 63.8% | +7.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 50.3% | 42.3% | +8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bregenz 35.1 / Kapfenberg 37.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.