A. Salzburg vs First Vienna
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-08 · 17:30 CET
WWLWL
WLDWWThe score model made a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 36%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 37%). It finished 4:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: A. Salzburg 1.09 – 1.10 First Vienna.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Salzburg win | 34.8% | 35.6% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.7% | 27.6% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| First Vienna win | 35.5% | 36.8% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.3% | 48.3% | -10.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.8% | 27.6% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 44.4% | 53.5% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 32.8% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: A. Salzburg 19.3 / First Vienna 37.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.