St. Polten vs Austria Vienna (Am)
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-07 · 18:30 CET
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LWWLWThe score model made a St. Polten win the most likely outcome at 60%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: St. Polten 1.84 – 0.87 Austria Vienna (Am).
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Polten win | 60.0% | 64.0% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 20.6% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Austria Vienna (Am) win | 17.0% | 15.4% | +1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 59.6% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.6% | 38.7% | -10.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 54.2% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.1% | 40.6% | -3.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: St. Polten 37.4 / Austria Vienna (Am) 22.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.