Liefering vs Hertha Wels
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-07 · 18:30 CET
WLDWW
LWLDLThe score model made a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 49%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 2:3 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Liefering 1.79 – 1.26 Hertha Wels.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liefering win | 49.5% | 48.1% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 24.8% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Hertha Wels win | 26.7% | 27.1% | -0.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.7% | 60.8% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.3% | 40.3% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 59.9% | 62.6% | -2.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.4% | 41.8% | +2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Liefering 37.5 / Hertha Wels 20 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.