First Vienna vs Sturm Graz II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-08-01 · 18:30 CET
WLDWW
LWLLWThe score model made a First Vienna win the most likely outcome at 54%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: First Vienna 1.64 – 0.92 Sturm Graz II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna win | 54.0% | 54.2% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.3% | 24.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Sturm Graz II win | 20.7% | 21.7% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 56.1% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 35.0% | -9.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% | 56.1% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 38.2% | +0.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: First Vienna 37.1 / Sturm Graz II 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.