Kapfenberg vs Liefering
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-07-31 · 18:30 CET
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WLDWWThe score model made a Liefering win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 66%). It finished 0:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kapfenberg 1.49 – 1.90 Liefering.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kapfenberg win | 30.0% | 23.9% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.0% | 23.6% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Liefering win | 47.0% | 52.5% | -5.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.9% | 61.1% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.0% | 40.3% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 60.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.1% | 41.9% | +7.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kapfenberg 37 / Liefering 37.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.