Floridsdorfer AC vs St. Polten
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-07-31 · 20:30 CET
WLDWW
LLLLWThe score model made a Floridsdorfer AC win the most likely outcome at 39%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Floridsdorfer AC 1.16 – 0.98 St. Polten.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floridsdorfer AC win | 39.2% | 31.5% | +7.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 29.2% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| St. Polten win | 30.3% | 39.2% | -9.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 44.7% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17.0% | 24.7% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.5% | 50.7% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 22.0% | 30.9% | -8.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Floridsdorfer AC 36.4 / St. Polten 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.