Admira vs SK Rapid II
2. Liga, Austria · 2026-07-31 · 18:30 CET
LLWLW
WLWLLThe score model made an Admira win the most likely outcome at 59%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Admira 1.95 – 0.99 SK Rapid II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Admira win | 59.4% | 39.4% | +19.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.4% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| SK Rapid II win | 18.2% | 34.2% | -16.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 54.9% | +1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 34.4% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.4% | 58.7% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.7% | 37.7% | -3.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Admira 37 / SK Rapid II 31.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.