Melbourne City vs WS Wanderers
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-07 · 09:40 CET
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LLDWDThe score model makes a Melbourne City win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Melbourne City win — 49.2% vs 43.6% implied (+5.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Melbourne City 1.77 – 1.25 WS Wanderers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne City win | 49.2% | 43.6% | +5.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% | 25.9% | -1.8% |
| WS Wanderers win | 26.8% | 30.6% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 56.6% | +1.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.7% | 35.7% | +0.0% |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 59.6% | -0.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.1% | 38.7% | +0.4% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Melbourne City 31.6 / WS Wanderers 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Melbourne City vs WS Wanderers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.