Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-07 · 05:00 CET
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WLWWWThe score model makes an Auckland FC win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Auckland FC win — 47.6% vs 45.2% implied (+2.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Auckland FC 1.61 – 1.15 Wellington Phoenix.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland FC win | 47.6% | 45.2% | +2.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | 26.2% | -0.7% |
| Wellington Phoenix win | 26.9% | 28.6% | -1.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.2% | 52.2% | -0.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.0% | 31.4% | -1.4% |
| Both teams to score | 55.2% | 55.5% | -0.3% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.2% | 35.6% | -0.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Auckland FC 25.9 / Wellington Phoenix 31.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.