Perth Glory vs Adelaide United
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-01 · 09:00 CET
WDWLL
WWDLLThe score model makes an Adelaide United win the most likely outcome at 51%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Adelaide United win — 51.3% vs 37.8% implied (+13.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Perth Glory 1.33 – 1.93 Adelaide United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Perth Glory win | 25.9% | 35.8% | -9.9% |
| Draw | 22.8% | 26.3% | -3.6% |
| Adelaide United win | 51.3% | 37.8% | +13.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.2% | 57.1% | +6.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.1% | 36.3% | +4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 61.1% | +2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | 38.8% | +2.5% |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Perth Glory 30.4 / Adelaide United 29.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Perth Glory vs Adelaide United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.