Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners
A-League, Australia · 2026-11-01 · 05:00 CET
DWLLD
DWLDLThe score model made a Melbourne Victory win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Melbourne Victory 2.09 – 1.05 Central Coast Mariners.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melbourne Victory win | 60.8% | 65.5% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 21.2% | 19.8% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Central Coast Mariners win | 18.0% | 14.7% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 61.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.4% | 40.8% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.3% | 55.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 41.8% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Melbourne Victory 30.5 / Central Coast Mariners 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.