Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-31 · 05:00 CET
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LWLWWThe score model made a Newcastle Jets win the most likely outcome at 49%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Newcastle Jets 1.83 – 1.35 Wellington Phoenix.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets win | 48.6% | 47.4% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.1% | 24.5% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Wellington Phoenix win | 28.3% | 28.0% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.5% | 61.6% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% | 41.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 62.3% | 63.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.9% | 42.4% | -2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Newcastle Jets 30.7 / Wellington Phoenix 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.