Macarthur FC vs WS Wanderers
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-31 · 09:40 CET
LLWWD
LLLDWThe score model made a Macarthur FC win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Macarthur FC 1.83 – 1.48 WS Wanderers.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macarthur FC win | 46.0% | 35.3% | +10.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.9% | 25.7% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| WS Wanderers win | 31.1% | 39.1% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 59.4% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.1% | 38.7% | +3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.9% | 62.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 40.6% | +3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Macarthur FC 30.4 / WS Wanderers 30.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Macarthur FC vs WS Wanderers in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.