Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-30 · 10:00 CET
DDLLW
DWWWLThe score model made an Auckland FC win the most likely outcome at 38%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Brisbane Roar 1.34 – 1.37 Auckland FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Roar win | 36.3% | 35.4% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.6% | -1.7% | ✓ |
| Auckland FC win | 37.9% | 37.0% | +0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.7% | 50.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.7% | 30.0% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 55.6% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.2% | 34.5% | -0.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Brisbane Roar 29.6 / Auckland FC 25 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Brisbane Roar vs Auckland FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.