Sydney FC vs Adelaide United
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-25 · 05:00 CET
DWDLD
DWWDLThe score model makes a Sydney FC win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 62.1% vs 55.5% implied (+6.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sydney FC 1.78 – 1.42 Adelaide United.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney FC win | 46.2% | 42.6% | +3.6% |
| Draw | 23.1% | 26.3% | -3.2% |
| Adelaide United win | 30.7% | 31.2% | -0.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 55.5% | +6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.9% | 35.0% | +4.8% |
| Both teams to score | 63.2% | 59.2% | +3.9% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.6% | 38.4% | -4.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sydney FC 30 / Adelaide United 29.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sydney FC vs Adelaide United in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.