WS Wanderers vs Auckland FC
A-League, Australia · 2026-10-24 · 08:00 CET
LLLDW
DWWWLThe score model made an Auckland FC win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 5:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: WS Wanderers 1.20 – 1.65 Auckland FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WS Wanderers win | 27.8% | 37.0% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.2% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Auckland FC win | 47.9% | 35.8% | +12.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.1% | 52.6% | +1.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.8% | 32.2% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 57.5% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 47.7% | 36.1% | +11.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: WS Wanderers 30 / Auckland FC 24.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open WS Wanderers vs Auckland FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.