Biskra vs CR Belouizdad
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-17 · 19:00 CET
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DDDDWThe score model made a CR Belouizdad win the most likely outcome at 47%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Biskra 0.72 – 1.20 CR Belouizdad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biskra win | 21.8% | 21.8% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.0% | 31.2% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| CR Belouizdad win | 47.2% | 46.9% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 57.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30.0% | 35.3% | -5.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.8% | 18.7% | -5.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.0% | 40.7% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.6% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.0% | 25.4% | +5.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Biskra 18 / CR Belouizdad 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.