Constantine vs ASO Chlef
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-12 · 22:00 CET
LDLDD
LLLDDThe score model makes a Constantine win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 35.4% vs 28.5% implied (+6.9 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Constantine 1.48 – 0.79 ASO Chlef.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constantine win | 53.2% | 58.7% | -5.6% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 26.5% | +0.5% |
| ASO Chlef win | 19.8% | 14.7% | +5.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.8% | 40.3% | -0.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.6% | 22.4% | -2.8% |
| Both teams to score | 42.6% | 39.8% | +2.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 28.5% | +6.9% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Constantine 38.3 / ASO Chlef 38 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.