CR Belouizdad vs ES Setif
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-09-11 · 22:00 CET
WDDDD
LWWWLThe score model makes a CR Belouizdad win the most likely outcome at 65%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: CR Belouizdad win — 65.4% vs 58.7% implied (+6.7 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CR Belouizdad 1.81 – 0.64 ES Setif.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| CR Belouizdad win | 65.4% | 58.7% | +6.7% |
| Draw | 22.4% | 26.5% | -4.1% |
| ES Setif win | 12.2% | 14.8% | -2.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.3% | 40.1% | +4.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.2% | 22.6% | +0.6% |
| Both teams to score | 39.7% | 39.8% | -0.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 31.7% | 28.6% | +3.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CR Belouizdad 39.3 / ES Setif 37.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
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My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.