Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctThe season in numbers
Away wins paid out more than the market charged: +17.8% at market prices across 45 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Rayo Cantabria produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 29.1' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Llanera – Marino de Luanco2026-10-10 16:00Under 2.5Model 70.8%Implied 60.6%▲ +10.2%- Oviedo B – Rayo Cantabria2026-10-11 10:30Away winModel 31.8%Implied 23.3%▲ +8.5%
- Atl. Astorga – Ourense CF2026-10-10 14:30Under 2.5Model 66.6%Implied 59.5%▲ +7.1%
- Coruxo FC – Compostela2026-10-11 15:00Under 2.5Model 64.8%Implied 59.9%▲ +4.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Llanera– Marino de Luanco | 2026-10-10 | 16:00 | Under 2.5 | 70.8% | 60.6% | ▲ +10.2% | 1.65 |
| 2 |  Oviedo B– Rayo Cantabria | 2026-10-11 | 10:30 | Away win | 31.8% | 23.3% | ▲ +8.5% | 4.30 |
| 3 |  Atl. Astorga– Ourense CF | 2026-10-10 | 14:30 | Under 2.5 | 66.6% | 59.5% | ▲ +7.1% | 1.68 |
| 4 |  Coruxo FC– Compostela | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 64.8% | 59.9% | ▲ +4.9% | 1.67 |
Add Segunda RFEF - Group 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Segunda RFEF - Group 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Eibar B win the 2026-2027 title in 52% of them, projecting ~68 points; Alaves B are next at 15%. At the other end, Arosa SC finish in the bottom three in 70% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Eibar B's title chance up 2 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eibar B | 12 | 68 | 59–76 | ▲52% | 94% | — |
| 2 | Alaves B | 12 | 62 | 53–70 | ▼15% | 73% | — |
| 3 | Sestao | 12 | 61 | 52–69 | 12% | 69% | <1% |
| 4 | Gernika | 8 | 61 | 52–69 | 13% | 70% | <1% |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 10 | 57 | 48–66 | 5% | 48% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Torrelavega | 4 | 36 | 27–44 | — | <1% | 44% |
| 17 | Llanera | 4 | 34 | 26–42 | — | <1% | 55% |
| 18 | Arosa SC | 3 | 31 | 23–40 | — | <1% | 70% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 261 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/spain/segunda-rfef-group-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Segunda RFEF - Group 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/spain/segunda-rfef-group-1">Segunda RFEF - Group 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Segunda RFEF - Group 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bergantinos | 13 | 7.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | Eibar B | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | |
| 3 | Alaves B | 12 | 5.9 | +6.1 | |
| 4 | Sestao | 12 | 7.2 | +4.8 | |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Atl. Astorga | 3 | 5.9 | -2.9 | |
| 17 | Arosa SC | 3 | 6.2 | -3.2 | |
| 18 | Rayo Cantabria | 1 | 6.3 | -5.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+