Segunda RFEF - Group 1 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Spain · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 24 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Alaves B (62%), Eibar B (15%), Sestao (11%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves B | 7 | 16 | 6860–76 | 62% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
| Eibar B | 7 | 14 | 6153–69 | 15% | 56 from 27 (2.07/game) |
| Sestao | 7 | 16 | 6051–68 | 11% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
| Gernika | 7 | 9 | 5748–65 | 6% | 61 from 27 (2.26/game) |
| Bergantinos | 7 | 17 | 5547–64 | 4% | 53 from 27 (1.96/game) |
Below 1%: Portugalete, Amorebieta, Ourense CF, Oviedo B, Coruxo FC, Compostela, Basconia, Rayo Cantabria, Arosa SC, Marino de Luanco, Atl. Astorga, Llanera, Torrelavega.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).