How many points are needed to stay up in Ligue 1 2026/27?

Across 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the 2026/27 Ligue 1 season (updated 14 Nov 2026), 27 final points were enough to stay up in 50% of simulated seasons, and 31 points were enough in 90% of simulated seasons.

Who will go down? (Ligue 1 2026/27)

Clubs with the lowest simulated survival probabilities in Ligue 1 as of 14 Nov 2026: Le Havre (29%, currently 2 pts from 10 games); Angers (50%, currently 8 pts from 10 games); Troyes (51%, currently 8 pts from 10 games); Le Mans (80%, currently 8 pts from 10 games); Auxerre (91%, currently 10 pts from 10 games).

Ligue 1 relegation battle 2026/27: who will go down?

France · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 14 Nov 2026

Lowest survival chances in Ligue 1: Le Havre (29%), Angers (50%), Troyes (51%). 31 points kept a club up in 90% of 10,000 simulations.

Points line — 50% of simulations

27 pts

enough to stay up in half the simulated seasons

Points line — 90% of simulations

31 pts

enough to stay up in nine seasons out of ten

Survival chances, club by club

Club	P	Pts	Proj. pts	Survive	Needs (90% line)
Le Havre	10	2	2518–32	29%	29 from 24 (1.21/game)
Angers	10	8	2821–35	50%	23 from 24 (0.96/game)
Troyes	10	8	2821–35	51%	23 from 24 (0.96/game)
Le Mans	10	8	3325–40	80%	23 from 24 (0.96/game)
Auxerre	10	10	3628–44	91%	21 from 24 (0.88/game)

Above 99%: PSG, Lille, Marseille, Paris FC, Lyon, Monaco, Lens, Rennes, Nice, Brest, Strasbourg, Toulouse, Lorient.

Calculateur de maintien & Simulateur de classement

What does each club need?

Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to stay up.

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How these chances are made

A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 216 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes outside the relegation places (top 16). The points line is what the club finishing 17th ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.

The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).