Guest analysis · 2026 title races

Potential Title Winners of the Baltic Leagues, Based on Probability Data

By Paulius Kundzelevicius · projections from the Football Charts Monte Carlo model (10,000 simulations, updated daily) · expected points (xPTS) from Football Charts' Performance vs Market tables, derived from pre-match odds

The Baltic football leagues have attracted increasing attention in recent seasons, not only from casual fans but also from scouts, analysts and data-driven football professionals. With the 2026 campaign now past its halfway point, the title races remain wide open in both Lithuania's TOPlyga and Latvia's Virsliga, while Estonia's Meistriliiga appears to be heading towards a potential runaway title winner with around two and a half months of the season remaining. In this analysis, we delve deeper into the data to assess the leading clubs' chances of winning their respective titles, using football-charts.com's projected points and statistical probabilities to identify the teams best positioned to finish at the top.

Lithuania — is Kauno Žalgiris really the favourite?

After clinching their first-ever Lithuanian top-flight title last season, FK Kauno Žalgiris are on course to defend their crown in the 2026 TOPlyga season. The reigning champions began the campaign under head coach Eivinas Černiauskas, who guided them to glory, and at one stage looked destined to secure back-to-back titles before the summer break. However, a 3-0 victory over struggling FK Riteriai in late April proved to be their final league win before they embarked on an eight-game winless run, which eventually led to Černiauskas' dismissal.

An interim coach, Algis Jankauskas, took charge for the game against FK TransINVEST, which Kauno Žalgiris won 2-1, before the club appointed their new head coach. The change did not have an immediate impact on the team's performances, which remained rather flat and uninspiring to the naked eye. However, in terms of results, the TOPlyga champions accumulated seven points from a possible nine in their next three games under the new coach, before beginning their European qualifying campaign.

At the time of writing, FK Kauno Žalgiris have dropped into second place in the 2026 TOPlyga standings following an unfortunate 1-1 home draw with FK TransINVEST. This provided the perfect opportunity for FK Suduva to overtake them and move into pole position in the title race after a 2-0 away victory over Dziugas Telsiai. Despite this change at the top of the table, Kauno Žalgiris remain heavy favourites to retain the league title, with a 69% projected probability according to the football-charts.com model. Suduva, meanwhile, have seen their title-winning probability rise to 15% and are now considered the second favourites to lift the TOPlyga trophy at the end of the season, although they remain some way behind Kauno Žalgiris according to the model. FK Žalgiris Vilnius are third in the running, despite suffering a 3-2 home defeat to Banga Gargzdai, with an 8% projected probability of winning the league.

As we can see from the table above, FK Kauno Žalgiris' projected 69% title-winning probability looks plausible, although perhaps slightly overvalued at this stage of the season. The reigning TOPlyga champions have the largest points deficit relative to their expected total among all league teams, standing at -6.4 points, and would ideally be sitting on at least 44 points based on the market-derived xPTS. The current league leaders, FK Suduva, are the only team outperforming their expected points total, although only by a narrow margin of 0.6 points.

So, who will clinch the Lithuanian TOPlyga title in the end? According to the projected points model presented by football-charts.com, FK Kauno Žalgiris are the most likely candidates to secure back-to-back Lithuanian league titles. The model predicts that the green-and-white side will accumulate around 63 points, which should be enough to overtake current league leaders FK Suduva, who are projected to finish second with around 58 points. FK Žalgiris Vilnius are projected third on roughly 56 points — but the gap between them and second-placed Suduva is expected to be no more than five points, and with TransINVEST, Dziugas and Banga all within touching distance behind, the battle for the European places could hardly be more competitive.

Latvia — RFS vs Riga FC

While as many as six clubs can still win the Lithuanian top-flight title, the number of teams competing for the same prize in Latvia has narrowed down to just two clubs from Riga: RFS and Riga FC. Both clubs are around 20 points clear of their nearest rival, Auda, making it a clear two-horse race for the title until the end of the season.

This is arguably the most interesting title race, as the football-charts.com model currently gives RFS a 53% chance of winning the title and Riga FC 47%, with just one point separating them. RFS, despite sitting top of the league standings, are enduring a slightly worse recent run of form, having registered four wins from their last five games while dropping two points in a 1-1 home draw with Auda. Riga FC, on the other hand, do not seem to be slowing down, having won five games in a row by an average margin of two goals, while scoring three or more goals in each of their last four league fixtures.

As we can see from the table above, four of the current top five teams are outperforming their market-based expected points, with Auda recording the largest positive difference at +7.2 points, followed by RFS (+6.2), Riga FC (+4.9) and BFC Daugavpils (+3.6). The only exception is FK Liepaja, who have collected 34 points compared with 38.8 expected, a shortfall of 4.8 points. Interestingly, Liepaja are the team that would benefit most from the expected-points model, rising from fifth in the actual standings to fourth when teams are ranked by xPTS. At the top, RFS and Riga FC are remarkably close to their expected levels, with RFS sitting on 65 points from an expected 58.8 and Riga on 64 compared with 59.1. With only one point separating them in the actual standings, the title race remains extremely finely balanced heading into the decisive stage of the season.

The projected standings suggest a two-horse title race between RFS and Riga FC, who are clear runaways at the top. RFS are projected to finish on around 90 points, narrowly ahead of Riga FC on 89, with their title-winning probabilities also almost evenly split at 53% and 47%, respectively. Behind them, Auda are projected to finish on approximately 67 points, while FK Liepaja should ultimately sneak into the top four with around 50 points, despite currently sitting fifth on 34 points.

Estonia — can anyone stop Levadia?

From six potential title challengers in Lithuania, to two runaway horses in Latvia's Virsliga, to one clear winner in Estonia — FCI Levadia Tallinn are heading towards their 12th Estonian top-flight title. The Tallinn-based side are currently nine points clear of second-placed Kalju and 15 points ahead of their city rivals FC Flora, making it a one-horse race.

However, FCI Levadia Tallinn's 99% projected title-winning probability by football-charts.com may be slightly overstated given their recent form, with the potential champions losing and drawing games among their last five fixtures, highlighting that they are still beatable and capable of dropping points. However, the current gap between Levadia and their nearest challengers appears substantial enough to absorb occasional setbacks. Even without consistently producing their best performances, Levadia remain in a strong position to maintain their lead and ultimately clinch the 2026 Premium Liiga title.

Levadia remain clear favourites, sitting 2.5 points above market expectations. Several teams are outperforming their expected points, with Tammeka (+6.6) and Kuressaare (+4.5) standing out, while Narva are the only real exception, significantly underperforming by -9.3 xPTS. Based on their performances, Narva should be out of the relegation zone, with Kuressaare looking to avoid relegation, although their overperformance may not last much longer.

Baltic title race comparison

The Baltic title races reveal some notable differences in the competitive balance of the three leagues. In Lithuania, the two biggest clubs — FK Kauno Žalgiris and FK Žalgiris Vilnius — appear somewhat overstated relative to their actual performances. Kauno Žalgiris, despite being the clear favourite with a 69% projected title-winning probability, are currently 6.4 points below their expected total, suggesting that their squad quality has not translated into consistent results. At the same time, FK Suduva, Banga Gargzdai, Dziugas Telsiai and FK TransINVEST have all shown enough improvement to suggest they are now capable of genuinely challenging for European places.

The situation in Latvia is almost the complete opposite. RFS and Riga FC are miles ahead of the rest of the Virsliga, with RFS projected to finish on around 90 points and Riga FC on 89, compared with just 67 for third-placed Auda. Estonia sits somewhere between the two models, although the dominance is even more pronounced at the top: FCI Levadia's 99% title probability highlights just how little competition there is beyond their traditional rival FC Flora.

Notably, the two lenses used throughout this piece measure different things: xPTS distils what the betting market expected of each team before every kickoff, while the projections simulate the remaining season forward from results alone. Where both point the same way — a genuine coin-flip in Riga, Liepaja belonging in the top four, Levadia's title all but decided — the conclusion is on solid ground. Where they pull apart, as they do around Kauno Žalgiris, is exactly where the title race deserves the closest watch.

Written by Paulius Kundzelevicius. Title probabilities and projected points are from the Football Charts Monte Carlo model — 10,000 season simulations, refreshed daily; follow them live on the Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia hubs, and explore the xPTS tables under Performance vs Market. Statistics, not betting advice · 18+.