Uppsala W vs Djurgarden W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-26 · 15:00 CET
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WWWLWThe score model made a Djurgarden W win the most likely outcome at 70%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 67%). It finished 1:4 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Uppsala W 1.00 – 2.44 Djurgarden W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W win | 14.3% | 8.1% | +6.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 15.9% | 14.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Djurgarden W win | 69.8% | 77.4% | -7.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.7% | 67.4% | -0.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.9% | 47.2% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.8% | 49.0% | +7.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.7% | 46.9% | -3.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Uppsala W 18.9 / Djurgarden W 36.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Uppsala W vs Djurgarden W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.