Malmo FF W vs Djurgarden W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-09-18 · 19:00 CET
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LWWWLThe score model made a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 72%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF W 2.23 – 0.74 Djurgarden W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF W win | 72.0% | 66.3% | +5.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.4% | 20.0% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Djurgarden W win | 11.6% | 13.7% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.0% | 60.4% | -3.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.6% | 39.8% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | 52.6% | -6.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.3% | 41.8% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF W 27.1 / Djurgarden W 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Malmo FF W vs Djurgarden W in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.