Hammarby W vs Pitea W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-15 · 15:00 CET
LWDWW
LLDDLThe score model makes a Hammarby W win the most likely outcome at 80%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). The data's biggest gap to the market: BTTS: No — 66.4% vs 46.8% implied (+19.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Hammarby W 2.37 – 0.47 Pitea W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby W win | 80.3% | 74.3% | +6.1% |
| Draw | 13.6% | 15.8% | -2.2% |
| Pitea W win | 6.1% | 9.9% | -3.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 68.7% | -14.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 49.3% | -17.6% |
| Both teams to score | 33.6% | 53.2% | -19.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 49.0% | -4.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Hammarby W 33.9 / Pitea W 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.