Vittsjo W vs Rosengard W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-03 · 17:00
The score model makes an Rosengard W win the most likely outcome at 48%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Vittsjo W 1.15 – 1.59 Rosengard W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vittsjo W win | 28.5% | 34.2% | -5.7% |
| Draw | 23.2% | 27.1% | -3.9% |
| Rosengard W win | 48.3% | 38.7% | +9.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 55.2% | -3.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.6% | 34.7% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 53.7% | 58.5% | -4.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.9% | 38.3% | -7.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Vittsjo W 33.7 / Rosengard W 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.