Uppsala W vs Norrkoping W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 14:00
The score model makes an Norrkoping W win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Uppsala W 1.15 – 1.36 Norrkoping W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Uppsala W win | 32.4% | 28.7% | +3.7% |
| Draw | 24.9% | 25.8% | -0.9% |
| Norrkoping W win | 42.6% | 45.5% | -2.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.0% | 55.9% | -9.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.5% | 34.9% | -10.4% |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.0% | 37.7% | +1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Uppsala W 12.7 / Norrkoping W 33.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.