Kristianstad W vs AIK W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-08-01 · 13:00
The score model makes a Kristianstad W win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 67%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Kristianstad W 2.05 – 1.41 AIK W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristianstad W win | 53.0% | 37.4% | +15.5% |
| Draw | 20.1% | 26.0% | -6.0% |
| AIK W win | 27.0% | 36.5% | -9.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.2% | 56.5% | +10.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45.5% | 35.4% | +10.1% |
| Both teams to score | 65.3% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 49.3% | 38.0% | +11.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Kristianstad W 32.8 / AIK W 29.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.