Malmo FF W vs Pitea W
Allsvenskan Women, Sweden · 2026-07-31 · 16:00
The score model makes a Malmo FF W win the most likely outcome at 68%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Malmo FF W 1.95 – 0.68 Pitea W.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malmo FF W win | 68.3% | 65.3% | +2.9% |
| Draw | 19.1% | 20.8% | -1.7% |
| Pitea W win | 12.7% | 13.9% | -1.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 59.2% | -10.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.1% | 38.6% | -11.5% |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | 52.6% | -11.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 35.4% | 39.8% | -4.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Malmo FF W 23.5 / Pitea W 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.