CF Talavera vs Real Madrid C
Segunda Division B - Group 5, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 17:00 CET
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WWLDDThe score model made a CF Talavera win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CF Talavera 1.28 – 0.78 Real Madrid C.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CF Talavera win | 47.5% | 43.6% | +3.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.5% | 30.3% | +0.2% | ✓ |
| Real Madrid C win | 22.1% | 26.1% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | 41.0% | -6.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | 22.8% | -7.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 40.0% | 47.1% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.1% | 28.3% | -9.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CF Talavera 17.9 / Real Madrid C 33.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.