Castellon B vs Alcoyano
Segunda Division B - Group 3, Spain · 2026-09-12 · 19:00 CET
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DWDDDThe score model makes an Alcoyano win the most likely outcome at 43%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 44%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 40.6% vs 32.8% implied (+7.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Castellon B 1.08 – 1.35 Alcoyano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon B win | 30.0% | 29.2% | +0.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | 28.7% | -1.2% |
| Alcoyano win | 42.6% | 42.1% | +0.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69.9% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.8% | 48.3% | -4.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.7% | 27.6% | -4.9% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 53.1% | -4.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 32.8% | +7.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Castellon B 23.3 / Alcoyano 23.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.