Utebo FC vs SD Logrones
Segunda Division B - Group 2, Spain · 2026-09-13 · 12:00 CET
DWWLD
LWWLLThe score model made a Utebo FC win the most likely outcome at 55%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 39%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Utebo FC 1.51 – 0.76 SD Logrones.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utebo FC win | 54.5% | 39.2% | +15.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.3% | 31.0% | -3.7% | ✓ |
| SD Logrones win | 18.2% | 29.8% | -11.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.5% | 40.5% | -1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.4% | 22.1% | -2.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 47.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.1% | 28.9% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Utebo FC 40.7 / SD Logrones 32.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.