Ath Bilbao B vs Real Aviles
Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-09-06 · 18:15 CET
LWLDW
LLDLLThe score model made an Ath Bilbao B win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ath Bilbao B 1.85 – 1.17 Real Aviles.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ath Bilbao B win | 52.5% | 45.5% | +7.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.0% | 28.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Real Aviles win | 23.4% | 25.7% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 47.9% | +10.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 28.2% | +7.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.9% | 52.8% | +6.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 34.3% | 33.3% | +1.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ath Bilbao B 38.2 / Real Aviles 26 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.