Castellon vs Eibar
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-11-06 · 20:30 CET
WDLWW
WLDLDThe score model makes a Castellon win the most likely outcome at 60%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 55%). No market here diverges from the data by more than 2 points. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles + form & shots)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Castellon 1.93 – 0.96 Eibar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Castellon win | 60.0% | 58.2% | +1.8% |
| Draw | 21.9% | 22.5% | -0.7% |
| Eibar win | 18.2% | 19.3% | -1.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32.8% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.7% | — | — |
Model dc_ml_v1 · rating sample: Castellon 47.6 / Eibar 56.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Castellon vs Eibar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.