Tenerife vs Cadiz CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-26 · 18:30 CET
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DWLLWThe score model made a Tenerife win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Tenerife 1.20 – 0.88 Cadiz CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tenerife win | 43.3% | 50.8% | -7.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.9% | 28.6% | +1.3% | ✓ |
| Cadiz CF win | 26.8% | 20.5% | +6.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.7% | 41.6% | -7.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.9% | 22.3% | -6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.3% | 46.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 28.5% | -2.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Tenerife 27.9 / Cadiz CF 46 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Tenerife vs Cadiz CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.