Leganes vs Granada CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 21:00 CET
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LWWWWThe score model made a Leganes win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Leganes 1.14 – 1.00 Granada CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes win | 38.4% | 46.0% | -7.6% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.8% | 29.8% | +0.0% | ✗ |
| Granada CF win | 31.7% | 24.2% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.2% | 40.8% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 21.8% | -4.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.2% | 46.6% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.1% | 28.3% | -4.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Leganes 41.7 / Granada CF 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Leganes vs Granada CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.