Las Palmas vs Burgos CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 18:30 CET
LDLLW
WWLLWThe score model made a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 30%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Las Palmas 1.12 – 0.78 Burgos CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Palmas win | 43.2% | 47.8% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 28.9% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Burgos CF win | 25.4% | 23.2% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 56.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.7% | 44.1% | -14.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.6% | 24.6% | -12.0% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 36.8% | 49.1% | -12.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | 30.0% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Las Palmas 36.2 / Burgos CF 54.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Las Palmas vs Burgos CF in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.