Ceuta vs Valladolid
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-20 · 16:15 CET
DWDLL
WDWLLThe score model made a Ceuta win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceuta 1.29 – 1.17 Valladolid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta win | 39.1% | 32.5% | +6.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 29.0% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Valladolid win | 33.4% | 38.5% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.7% | 46.2% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.4% | 25.9% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 52.2% | -2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.6% | 31.5% | +7.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceuta 32.4 / Valladolid 38.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Ceuta vs Valladolid in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.