Eldense vs Eibar
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 18:30 CET
LLWWW
WWLDLThe score model made an Eibar win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eldense 0.87 – 1.25 Eibar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eldense win | 25.8% | 31.7% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 29.5% | 30.4% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Eibar win | 44.8% | 37.9% | +6.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.5% | 44.4% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.5% | 24.9% | -8.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.6% | 50.7% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.0% | 30.5% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eldense 24.4 / Eibar 54.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Eldense vs Eibar in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.