Andorra vs Gijon
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-09-19 · 16:15 CET
LWDWL
WLWWWThe score model made an Andorra win the most likely outcome at 43%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Andorra 1.44 – 1.18 Gijon.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andorra win | 42.7% | 47.0% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Gijon win | 30.9% | 26.0% | +4.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.6% | 49.2% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.8% | 29.0% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 53.5% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 33.5% | -7.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Andorra 41.9 / Gijon 54.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Andorra vs Gijon in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.