Gijon vs Burgos CF
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-23 · 19:00 CET
WDWWL
WWLDDThe score model made a Gijon win the most likely outcome at 40%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gijon 1.14 – 0.94 Burgos CF.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gijon win | 39.8% | 43.8% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.8% | 30.8% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Burgos CF win | 29.3% | 25.5% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.3% | 38.8% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.6% | 20.2% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 27.6% | 26.9% | +0.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gijon 53.9 / Burgos CF 53.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.