Eibar vs Valladolid
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-23 · 17:00 CET
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LLLDWThe score model made an Eibar win the most likely outcome at 53%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Eibar 1.41 – 0.73 Valladolid.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar win | 52.7% | 44.5% | +8.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 28.2% | 31.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Valladolid win | 19.1% | 24.1% | -5.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36.0% | 39.5% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.9% | 20.7% | -3.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 39.6% | 46.1% | -6.5% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.0% | 27.1% | +0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Eibar 53.8 / Valladolid 37 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.