Oviedo vs Leganes
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-22 · 17:00 CET
WDLWD
WDWWDThe score model made an Oviedo win the most likely outcome at 48%, leaning under 2.5 (Over 2.5 at 32%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Oviedo 1.25 – 0.73 Leganes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 48.3% | 51.8% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.4% | 28.7% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Leganes win | 21.3% | 19.5% | +1.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31.7% | 39.7% | -8.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13.9% | 21.0% | -7.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 37.3% | 43.5% | -6.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.7% | 27.6% | -9.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Oviedo 24.9 / Leganes 40.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.