Ceuta vs Las Palmas
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-22 · 19:00 CET
WLLLL
DWWLDThe score model made a Las Palmas win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceuta 1.07 – 1.41 Las Palmas.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceuta win | 28.3% | 32.4% | -4.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 27.5% | 28.7% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Las Palmas win | 44.3% | 38.9% | +5.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.2% | 50.9% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% | 30.7% | -6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 56.5% | -6.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.4% | 34.1% | +4.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceuta 30.1 / Las Palmas 34.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.