Albacete vs Real Sociedad B
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-22 · 19:00 CET
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DLWDDThe score model made an Albacete win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Albacete 1.63 – 1.10 Real Sociedad B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albacete win | 49.4% | 52.5% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 26.0% | -0.7% | ✗ |
| Real Sociedad B win | 25.3% | 21.5% | +3.7% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.5% | 51.5% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% | 30.8% | -1.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 54.1% | 53.8% | +0.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.2% | -1.8% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Albacete 54 / Real Sociedad B 30.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.