Almeria vs Eldense
La Liga2, Spain · 2026-08-17 · 21:30 CET
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LLDLDThe score model made an Almeria win the most likely outcome at 64%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 3:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Almeria 2.27 – 1.05 Eldense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almeria win | 64.4% | 65.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 19.5% | 20.0% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Eldense win | 16.1% | 14.3% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.5% | 58.3% | +6.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.4% | 36.8% | +5.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 51.8% | +6.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.5% | 39.6% | -2.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Almeria 46.7 / Eldense 20.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.